The Hungarian Forint has made by far the biggest gains against the Euro (5.8% excl. carry) in the EMEA space. Room for rally is shrinking but still the currency of choice for economists at ING.
EUR/USD will not deliver another significant boost anytime soon
“At the global level, EUR/USD will not deliver another significant boost anytime soon and the market has almost fully normalised after the March turmoil.”
“At the local level, we won’t get much more positive from the energy story either. Moreover, the market positioning is becoming heavily long again in our view.”
“We believe the forint may touch 370 EUR/HUF in the foreseeable future, but 375 EUR/HUF will remain the point of gravity. Nevertheless, by far the highest carry in the region and the normalisation story after a negative year will, in our view, keep the Forint popular within the CEE region and thus continue to be our currency of choice.”