WTI Oil outlook Oil price falls further on stronger dollar and demand concerns


WTI oil price falls further in early Thursday, extending Wednesday’s bearish acceleration (down 2.4% for the day) which has registered a daily close below psychological $80 support.

Fresh weakness broke below next pivot at $79.00 (Fibo 23.6% of $64.34/$83.51/the lowest after Apr 3 gap higher) opening way for deeper pullback from $83.51 (2023 high) where the action was repeatedly capped by falling 200DMA.

Weakening daily studies (14-d momentum in steep decline/5/10DMA bear-cross) support the action, as bears crack 20DMA ($77.91), eyeing key Fibo support at $76.19 (38.2% of $64.34/$83.51).

Overbought stochastic and momentum indicator breaking into negative territory on weekly chart, add to downside risk.

However, bears may pause on oversold conditions on daily chart, with the action to be ideally capped by $79.00 (reverted to resistance) and stronger upticks to stay below $80 to keep fresh bears in play.

Weakening fundamentals on stronger dollar amid expectations for further Fed rate hikes, weigh on oil prices and so far offset positive signals from stronger than expected China’s economic data, while the impact from the latest OPEC+ decision to further reduce output is also fading.

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