AUDUSD steady climbs closer to mid-0.6600s, upside potential seems limited

  • AUD/USD kicks off the new week on a positive note and climbs to a four-day high.
  • A combination of factors could cap any further gains and warrants caution for bulls.
  • Traders now look to the US ISM Manufacturing PMI ahead of the RBA on Tuesday.

The AUD/USD pair attracts some buyers on the first day of a new week and builds on Friday’s bounce from the 0.6575-0.6570 area, or its lowest level since March 10. Spot prices build on the steady intraday ascent through the early North American session and climb to a four-day high, closer to mid-0.6600s in the last hour.

Traders opt to lighten their bets ahead of this week’s key central bank event risks, which, in turn, is seen as a key factor pushing the AUD/USD pair amid relatively thin liquidity conditions on the back of a holiday in Europe. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is scheduled to announce its monetary policy decision on Tuesday. This will be followed by the outcome of the highly-anticipated two-day FOMC meeting on Wednesday.

The upside for the AUD/USD pair, however, seems limited amid a modest US Dollar (USD) strength, bolstered by the prospects for another 25 bps lift-off by the Federal Reserve (Fed).  Apart from this, looming recession fears drive some haven flow towards the Greenback and act as a headwind for the risk-sensitive Aussie. Furthermore, weaker Chinese manufacturing data released on Sunday might contribute to capping the AUD/USD pair.

In fact, the official Chinese Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), released on Sunday, declined to 49.2 in April from 51.9 in March. The data comes amid worries about economic headwinds stemming from rising borrowing costs and tempers investors’ appetite for riskier assets, which is evident from the cautious mood around the equity markets. This warrants some caution before placing bullish bets around the AUD/USD pair.

Market participants now look to the release of the US ISM Manufacturing PMI, due later during the early North American session. This, along with the broader risk sentiment, should influence the USD price dynamics and contribute to producing short-term trading opportunities around the AUD/USD pair.

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