First Republic drama will divert a 25bp from the Fed

Sentiment on Friday’s trading session was surprisingly resilient to further deterioration in the First Republic Bank’s (FRC) situation. The FRC dived another 43% on Friday as no solution to save the bank popped up by magic.

But the S&P500 rallied to 4170, to the highest level since February, as surprise record earnings from Exxon Mobil and Chevron stole attention from the FRC for a moment.

Exxon announced a profit of more than $11bn in Q1 thanks to effective cost cutting. That’s more than double the profit it announced the same time last year, while Chevron topped estimates as well, despite a 16% plunge in average oil prices compared to the same time last year.

Moving forward, the headache on the FRC front didn’t end with the closing bell. The FDIC said it’s preparing to place the bank under receivership to prevent the bank from going bankrupt. The share price fell another 33% in the afterhours trading. Talks regarding who will get involved in the saving of the FRC carried on through the weekend and extended into last night. A decision could fall at anytime.

Good news is that the US futures don’t seem to be under the pressure at the time of writing. The S&P500 futures are flat to slightly positive. The FRC drama, and the inevitable outcome, has seemingly been broadly priced in by now.

And despite the latest banking drama, the Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to raise the rates when it meets this week by another 25bp. In Europe, the ECB is expected to raise the rates by 25bp when it meets this week. 

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