Bitcoin spending copies history as metric flags ‘1st stage bull market’

Bitcoin on-chain spending is heating up and, so far, is “rhyming” with past BTC price cycles.



$30,327 long-term holders are coming back to life as BTC price increases, the latest analysis confirms.

In a tweet on July 13, Philip Swift, creator of on-chain data resource LookIntoBitcoin, revealed classic bull market behavior among “older” BTC investors.

Value Days Destroyed Multiple prints BTC price bull signal 

Bitcoin’s current price cycle may be dividing opinions when it comes to how high BTC’s price could go, but one thing is for sure: Hodler behavior is the same.

Thanks to BTC/USD more than doubling in 2023, on-chain spending velocity is up, indicative of profit-taking activity.

Uploading a chart of the Value Days Destroyed (VDD) Multiple, Swift suggested that the current cycle barely differs from all previous ones in this regard.

“Increased onchain spending volume showing where we are in the cycle right now,” part of an accompanying Twitter commentary stated.

“History doesn’t repeat but it often rhymes.”

VDD is based on the extant Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) metric, which measures periods of inactivity each time an amount of BTC moves on-chain. It takes CDD data and factors in the current BTC price, and its multiple then compares the 30-day result with the 365-day average.

“It is able to highlight when older coins begin to rapidly enter the market to be sold,” Swift explains in an instructional guide on LookIntoBitcoin.

“This typically happens when longer-term participants look to take profits as price accelerates up in major bull market cycles.”

The VDD Multiple currently measures 1.32, narrowly behind its 2023 peak of 1.37 seen in April. For Swift, this is a telltale sign of a “1st stage bull market.”

Reacting, Checkmate, lead on-chain analyst at data firm Glasson, called the findings “remarkable.”

“It is remarkable how consistent the cycles are. Humans reacting the same, given similar stimulus,” he responded.

“This time is indeed, not different.”

Not just Bitcoin diamond hands

Glasson data, meanwhile, underscores how tempting it might be for various holder classes to cash out at current prices.

Related: Bitcoin bulls ‘have work to do’ after XRP price spikes 104%

Bitcoin’s market-value-to-realized-value (MVRV) ratio for long-term and short-term holders (LTHs and STHs, respectively) shows both types of investors considerably in the black.

LTH coins — defined as coins dormant for at least 155 days — are on aggregate worth 1.52 times more than when they last moved. For the STH equivalent, the number is 1.12.

Previously, Coin telegraph reported on the increasing sway that STHs have over BTC price action.

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