Forex Today: Stocks Higher as Markets Await US Inflation Data

Stock markets are higher almost everywhere over the past day, especially in the USA, where data later today is expected to show annualized inflation continuing to fall.

  1. There will be a release today of crucial US CPI (inflation) data, which over recent years has proven to be the key driver of the Forex market. Annualized inflation is expected to fall from 3.2% to 3.1%, with month-on-month data showing neither inflation nor deflation. Core inflation is expected to show a monthly increase of 0.3%. If the data is lower than expected, there will probably be a strong rise in major US stock indices, and a fall in the US Dollar, and vice versa if the data is higher than expected.
  2. Stock markets are strong today, with the NASDAQ 100 Index closing yesterday at a near 2-year new high, while the benchmark S&P 500 Index closed at an 18-month high. Both indices, and other major stock indices, will be attractive to trend traders on the long side. Many analysts see major US stock indices as likely to reach new all-time highs during 2024.
  3. In the Forex market, since the Tokyo open, the New Zealand Dollar has been the strongest major currency, while the US Dollar has been the weakest, putting the NZD/USD currency pair in focus. There do not seem to be any valid long-term trends to exploit in this asset class right now, with the US Dollar’s direction looking uncertain before US CPI data is released.
  4. Bitcoin is continuing to fall from its recent 18-month high above $44,000. It remains to be seen whether it stabilizes at nearby support levels, where trend traders may still find new long trade entries.
  5. Cocoa futures ended last week Friday at a multi-year high weekly closing price.
  6. There will be a release of UK Claimant Count (unemployment claims) data today.

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