Mexican Peso taps multi-month high in faltering broad-market Greenback selloff

  • The Mexican Peso hit a 15-week high against the US Dollar on Friday.
  • Mexico’s unadjusted Trade Balance hit a nine-month high in November.
  • Friday marks the last trading day before the holiday break.

The Mexican Peso (MXN) rallied to a fresh 15-week high on Friday as the broader market took one last opportunity to sell off the US Dollar (USD) heading into the extended holiday weekend before markets pared back on Greenback shorts heading towards the Friday closing bell.

Mexico’s unadjusted Trade Balance in November beat market expectations and improved to a nine-month high of 630 million in US Dollar terms. However, market impact is likely limited after the seasonally adjusted Trade Balance grew by a scant 300K.

US data drove the market on Friday, with mixed figures pulling Greenback bids in both directions, but the US Dollar heads into the holiday break notably in the red across the board, falling back against the majority of the major currency bloc.

Daily digest market movers: Mexican Peso propped up by Greenback weakness

  • MXN hit a 15-week high of 16.94 against the USD on Friday as markets sell the US Dollar off one last time before the holiday break.
  • Mexico’s November Trade Balance grew by USD 630 million versus the market forecast of USD 404 million, rebounding from October’s USD 252 million deficit.
  • November’s seasonally adjusted Mexico Trade Balance showed scant growth of USD 300K versus the previous month’s growth of USD 242 million, implying seasonal factors are boosting Mexico Trade Balance and are unlikely to last.
  • US Dollar weakness was the general market theme on Friday before a late-day pullback as investors wrap up for the holiday break.
  • The US Annualized Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index in November grew by 3.2% from the same time last year, easing back from market forecasts of 3.3% and declining further from the previous period’s 3.4% (which was also revised down from 3.5%).
  • Durable Goods Orders in November lurched higher to grow 5.4%, well over the market forecast of 2.2% and clawing back October’s -5.1% (also revised upwards from -5.4%).
  • Easing US inflation figures are keeping market hopes pinned for faster and sooner rate cuts from the Federal Reserve (Fed).
  • Mexico’s Jobless Rate figures are due next Thursday after the holiday break.

Technical Analysis: Mexican Peso sees one last bump to close out the trading week

The Mexican Peso (MXN) has captured some ground amidst broad-market US Dollar (USD) weakness on Friday, with the USD/MXN pair definitively piercing below the 17.00 handle for the first time since late August. Mid-Friday saw a US Dollar recovery, propping the USD/MXN back up into the 17.00 handle as markets wrap up the last full trading week of 2023.

Hourly candles have the USD/MXN running well away from the 200-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA) just below 17.20, and last week’s rough intraday chop has given way to smooth declines heading into the holiday break.

Daily candlesticks show the USD/MXN accelerating into multi-month lows as the pair drops through 17.00. Meanwhile, the 50-day and 200-day SMAs are set for a bearish crossover, which will chalk in a heavy technical resistance zone to cap off any bullish recoveries heading into 2024.

USD/MXN Hourly Chart

USD/MXN Daily Chart


What key factors drive the Mexican Peso?

The Mexican Peso (MXN) is the most traded currency among its Latin American peers. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Mexican economy, the country’s central bank’s policy, the amount of foreign investment in the country and even the levels of remittances sent by Mexicans who live abroad, particularly in the United States. Geopolitical trends can also move MXN: for example, the process of nearshoring – or the decision by some firms to relocate manufacturing capacity and supply chains closer to their home countries – is also seen as a catalyst for the Mexican currency as the country is considered a key manufacturing hub in the American continent. Another catalyst for MXN is Oil prices as Mexico is a key exporter of the commodity.

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