EUR/USD Forecast: Remains listless around 1.0950 due to extended weekend in US markets

  • EUR/USD consolidates slightly above 1.0950 amid a holiday-truncated week.
  • Investors’ bets for rate cut by the Fed in March remain persistent.
  • The ECB is done with hiking interest rates for now.

EUR/USD remained inside Thursday’s trading range of 1.0930-1.1000 in the Friday’s trading session. The upside remained caped as the European Central Bank (ECB) announced an end to the elongated rate-tightening regime while stubbornly higher consumer price inflation in the United States provided cushion at the downside.

The pair continues to trade listless inside Friday’s trading range on Monday due to an extended weekend in the US economy amid Martin Luther King Birthday.

The major is struggling to catch action despite the surprisingly softer US Producer Price Index (PPI) report for December. Producers at factory gates rose annual prices of goods and services at a slower pace of 1.0% against 1.3% as anticipated by investors. The core PPI that excludes volatile food and oil prices decelerated sharply to 1.8% vs. consensus of 1.9%.

Bets supporting a rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in the March monetary policy meeting are persistently upbeat despite policymakers are endorsing them atleast after the first-half of this year. Fed policymakers need more evidence to confirm that price pressures are progressively declining towards the 2% target before jumping to rate-cut cycle.

This week, market participants will keenly focus on the monthly US Retail Sales data for December. Investors have projected that consumer spending rose at a higher pace of 0.4% against 0.3% growth in November. Apart from that, Fed’s Beige Book will be in focus.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

EUR/USD trades in an Ascending Triangle chart pattern on an hourly scale, which indicates a sharp decline in volatility. The upside in the major currency pair remains restricted around the psychological figure of 1.1000 while upward-sloping trendline plotted from January 5 low at 1.0877 is providing support to the Euro bulls.

The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates in the 40.00-60.00 range, which indicates a consolidation ahead.

The upside journey in the major currency could resume if the asset manages to climb above January 11 high at 1.1003, which will allow it to recapture five-month high around 1.1120. A breach of the latter would open upside towards 19 July 2023 low at 1.1174.

On the flip side, a sell-off could occur if the asset drops below January 9 low of 1.0910. This could trigger a downside move towards 22 November 2023 low at 1.0825 and 5 November 2023 high near 1.0756.

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